Remediaciòn de unsitio contaminado (Pertusola):modelaciòn del transporte subterraneo Y anàlisis de riesgo sanitario

Abstract

This work applies deterministic and probabilistic methodology to the analysis of health risk of a contaminated site. The risks we have calculated are both cancerogenous and no-cancerogenous. The area we studied was formerly used for chemical industry, and is called “Pertusola South Crotone”. Due to its high concentrations of heavy metals it has been declared “area of national interest”. The receptors we have considered are adults, children and workers. As point where the target is exposed to the contamination we have taken the coast line. The contaminants that were considered are As, Cd y Zn. A mathematical model is utilized for the simulation of destination and transportation of contaminants from the point of origin of the contamination to that of exposition. The methodology of risk analysis is applied in direct and inverse way. The direct calculation allows the estimate of health risk to which the target is exposed in presence of a strong contamination. The inverse calculation makes possible to determine the maximum acceptable contamination of the target, compatible with an acceptable level of risk. The deterministic methodology has been used to calculate the RME and MLE values. The probabilistic one (based on Monte Carlo method) has been used to calculate the estimated average value, UCL 95%, UCL 99%. If the exposition rate RME is considered and deterministic and probabilistic results are compared, one obtains an overestimate of the risk in the case of the deterministic values. The probabilistic calculation allows to fulfil less conservative remediation objectives. This leads to a lower cost of the remediation work. From the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis one finds that toxicological factors contribute to the risk equation more than hydrogeological factors.